China Politburo Conference Key to Policy Transition: UBS

A note from investment bank UBS AG said "continued weakness" in China's economic growth momentum could "turn more positively" in Beijing's policies relating to investors and consumers.

The agency said consumption or activity in key markets in China's real estate sector (pictured, Shanghai) could include "disappointing" levels as examples of indicators of concern for central authorities, with exports "going to fall sharply."

"We expect the policy to turn more positive by boosting infrastructure investment, implementing some targeted consumption support, and further easing real estate policy," said the note, led by Tao Wang, the agency's chief China economist.

The note signaled a weaker year-on-year growth in the Chinese economy in May. "Our UBS China activity tracker shows soft sequential growth momentum, while the low base effect turned less favourably in May," it said.

"With the low base effect fading, we expect economic activity to slow for most of May from April and nonetheless post decent numbers," the memo released on Wednesday said.

The bank said the second-quarter headline's year-over-year growth strength could "limit the scope of policy stimulus in the short term." However, it added that more policy easing in the coming years was "likely" if China's economic growth momentum "continues to weaken."

"The upcoming July Politburo meeting is a key time zone to watch for changes in policy stance, and regular Cabinet meetings in the next two to three months could deliver some details," the UBS memo said.

The possibility of new fiscal stimulus from mainland Chinese authorities could help boost the value of Macau casino stocks, a recent note from U.S.-based CBRE Securities LLC suggested.

"In the current environment, confidence in economic conditions will be a bigger driver of earnings for Macau gaming stocks rather than fundamentals," the brokerage said.

CBRE added: "With that in mind, any stimulus in China will be a meaningful catalyst for Macau casino stocks, which we expect to outperform Hang Seng [Hong Kong Index] in the process of rising again." [url=https://www.bsc.news/post/2024-safety-slotsite-rankings-free-online-slot-site-recommendations-top15]온라인 슬롯[/url]
A note from investment bank UBS AG said "continued weakness" in China's economic growth momentum could "turn more positively" in Beijing's policies relating to investors and consumers. The agency said consumption or activity in key markets in China's real estate sector (pictured, Shanghai) could include "disappointing" levels as examples of indicators of concern for central authorities, with exports "going to fall sharply." "We expect the policy to turn more positive by boosting infrastructure investment, implementing some targeted consumption support, and further easing real estate policy," said the note, led by Tao Wang, the agency's chief China economist. The note signaled a weaker year-on-year growth in the Chinese economy in May. "Our UBS China activity tracker shows soft sequential growth momentum, while the low base effect turned less favourably in May," it said. "With the low base effect fading, we expect economic activity to slow for most of May from April and nonetheless post decent numbers," the memo released on Wednesday said. The bank said the second-quarter headline's year-over-year growth strength could "limit the scope of policy stimulus in the short term." However, it added that more policy easing in the coming years was "likely" if China's economic growth momentum "continues to weaken." "The upcoming July Politburo meeting is a key time zone to watch for changes in policy stance, and regular Cabinet meetings in the next two to three months could deliver some details," the UBS memo said. The possibility of new fiscal stimulus from mainland Chinese authorities could help boost the value of Macau casino stocks, a recent note from U.S.-based CBRE Securities LLC suggested. "In the current environment, confidence in economic conditions will be a bigger driver of earnings for Macau gaming stocks rather than fundamentals," the brokerage said. CBRE added: "With that in mind, any stimulus in China will be a meaningful catalyst for Macau casino stocks, which we expect to outperform Hang Seng [Hong Kong Index] in the process of rising again." 온라인 슬롯